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Buying a stock; Read this First

Common Mistakes which everyone makes

1)      People go by gut feeling: Which is good but does not always work.

2)      Don’t just go by the “TIP”; Analyze the stock.

3)      Always think would you be spending your money in something which you have no idea about.

4)       If you like a stock do check out the related news (www.google.com/finance)

5)      Don’t just buy a stock if it’s fallen on a particular day. Don’t worry it will fall more and again.

6)      Buy a stock at the low price for the year. Every year a stock will touch it’s high and low. Find out the average increase in the Low and High for the past 5 years and buy it when the stock is above 20% (can vary depending on the stock) from the previous year low.

7)      Always bet on a stock which is healthy (one which has constant increase in earnings) and not on one which is unpredictable.

8)      Things to looks for a constant increase in a stock

a.       Earnings Per Share

b.      Return on equity

c.       Return on total capital

d.      Amount of Loan (should not be more than 4 times the Net Profit)

e.      More the cash, better chances for the company to survive.

9)      Always keep money aside for investing in stock

10)   We all make mistakes. There will always be next time. 

Juniper Network (JNPR)

 

Results

                The results for quarter ending Sep 2011 are below expectation.  According to the calculation it should have been at 21 cents a share but it settled at 3 cents down at 18 cents. We are estimating a Full year EPS of 1.00 (estimated was 1.25).

The Stock has already lost 40% of its value.

The Growth of the stock has dropped down from 20% to 10%

There has been a decline in the sales.

Price rise

The Price should lift in 2012 as more companies will start spending again. Juniper has now started exploring the Asian market also. There are upcoming additions to the lineup of products which should help in sales growth and with the rising demand for mobile computing and Cloud Juniper has a lot to offer.

Financial (10 Year period)

EPS: In line to our expectation

Dividend: NIL

Book Value: Should always be rising (In line with expectation)

Share buyback: Is expected which will in turn increase the EPS and will lead to increase in stock price.

Debt Level: The Company can easily repay the debt in a Year.

P/E Ratio:  21.1

Trailing (Last Year’s Avg): 19.5

Median (Avg of Last 10 years): 39

As compared to other stocks (1.00 as the baseline): 1.57

Net Profit Margin: High

Return on Total Capital: Medium low

Return of Shareholder’s Equity: Low

Future Return on Total Capital: Should be high

Future Return on Shareholder’s Equity: Should be high

BETA: 1.15 (1.0 for the market)

December 31 result: Expected EPS of 0.31 (If it touches that the share will bounce) 

Points to note

The Return on total Capital and Equity is low to make it an extremely good share. Though looking at the past performance it has made our list of the TOP 50.

The Company has bounced back before. It looks like the company is ready for a comeback, as seen in the past the company did not have major problems during recession but after the recession end the next year has always been hard for the company and that’s exactly what is happening.

I think year 2012 will be a good year for the company

The company has touched its bottom for the year which was around $19.4, the high was $45.0. We are expecting the price range for 2012 to be $22 to $40.